Braunschweig or Kaiserslautern: who will be promoted to the second division? | NDR.de – Sport

Status: 27/04/2022 09:17

Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Kaiserslautern are fighting in a long-distance duel for direct promotion to the second division. Who has the best chance? What differentiates both teams? The data check.

by Sebastian Ragoss

Not played and still won: Eintracht Braunschweig experienced an unusual weekend and surprisingly enters the last matches of this third division season with a very good starting position.

Da Türkgücü München stopped playing, the “Lions” had no game and could enjoy seeing how Kaiserslautern surprisingly lost in Wiesbaden and brought Lower Saxony in pole position to second place.

Three victories are enough for Eintracht to take second place

If Eintracht win their three remaining matches, they will move directly up to the second division together with the champions 1. FC Magdeburg.

“There is no one dancing on the tables now. We must remain calm and focused and continue to work as usual. Because we must win our matches first,” said Braunschweig’s sporting director Peter Vollmann about the new starting position.

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Türkgücü inadvertently plays an important role in the long-distance duel between the two traditional clubs: Munich would have been Kaiserslautern’s opponent on the last day of the match.

FCK can then no longer score, which can put Eintracht in the favorable position to know exactly how to act in the last match against Viktoria Cologne to complete the promotion.

“Lions” and FCK with the best chance

Braunschweig would have deserved to return to league two, as the GSN data shows: “Lions” scored the third most goals and closed in second first. In several categories they occupy a top position in the league, statistically speaking there are only a few weaknesses.

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Symbol image football data © Imago / STPP

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At 1. FC Kaiserslautern, the data is a bit different: the team plays a very special defensive style that differs from all other teams in the top third of the table. Therefore, coach Marco Antwerp’s team excels in some categories and is among the worst in the league in others.

What sets both competitors apart is their efficiency in turning around scoring opportunities: FCK is first on the league rankings with 26.48 percent, while Eintracht is only marginally worse with 26.21 percent (second place).

Braunschweig with efficient pressing

However, the path to the goal is different for the people of Braunschweig. They are not a classic ball possession team that wants to defeat the opponent through extensive passes.

The graphic shows the strengths of the Eintracht Braunschweig © NDR

Nevertheless, the basic orientation is more offensive than at Kaiserslautern, which can be seen in the press data as an example.

On average, Lower Saxony wins the ball 11.53 times per game in the opposite half (rank 3) and thus significantly more often than FCK (8.11 / rank 19). Also in other areas of the pitch, Eintracht often wins the game by pressing and then switching quickly.

And the Eintracht manages, above average, to complete a counter-attack after winning the ball (18.64 percent / rank 3).

Kaiserslautern: outsider football with defensive bulwark

1. FC Kaiserslautern’s plan is completely different: they almost completely leave the initiative to each opponent, retire and have the second lowest ball possession time per. match at 22:02 minutes in the league.

The graphic shows the strengths of 1. FC Kaiserslautern © NDR

This, in turn, means that the team hardly makes crucial mistakes in its compact basic formation, which is impressively underlined by 22 conceded goals.

Offensively, FCK are particularly dangerous through set pieces and have already scored 20 goals. Surprisingly, with 46.39 percent of the main duels won, Kaiserslautern ranks only 18th in the league.

In fact, Palatinate plays classic outsider football. However, the system works so well that they have been able to establish themselves in the third division top match.

The likelihood of promotion speaks for Braunschweig

And who will secure second place in the end and thus direct promotion? The GSN data shows Braunschweig with a promotion probability of 51 percent, just ahead of FCK with 47 percent (1860 Munich and VfL Osnabrück each have one percent chance).

A preliminary decision will be made on Friday (19.00 in the NDR Livecenter) when Eintracht third division champions 1. FC Magdeburg guests. Will FCM get back into it, or will it take it a little easier after the climb?

In Kaiserslautern, they will certainly cross their fingers for Magdeburg and are also willing to seek non-secular assistance. “Maybe I’m going to church and lighting a candle,” FCK coach Antwerp told SWR about the match. His team meets Borussia Dortmund II a day later and Viktoria Cologne the following weekend. Eintracht is then in action at SV Meppen.

Last match against Viktoria Cologne

If no decision has been made yet, FCK have no choice but to sit at home and hope that Braunschweig does not take the decisive step towards promotion in the home game against Cologne and then applies to the Palatinate: not played and still won.

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Symbol image football data © Imago / STPP

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sports club | 30/04/2022 | 14:00 clock

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